If you believe the official numbers issued by e.g. IFPI, the music industry has essentially a flat growth and lost trillions to piracy and download or streaming services.
In an Daily Telegraph article, the independent telecoms analyst Ovum forecasted: ‘…globally, revenues from music subscription services will increase at a compound annual growth rate of more than 60 per cent from 2011 to 2015, as consumers recognise the benefits of being able to access millions of streamed songs for the price of a CD every month rather than owning individual downloads. Subscription growth will also be driven by technology giants Apple and Google which are expected to launch cloud-based digital music subscription services this year.#
Wow, 60%. That’s a hell of a rosy prediction. The problem is, that neither the DT nor Ovum are known for the bullshit they tell. OK, in the US in 2010 there was only a lame 3% growth reported.
Ovum explains: ‘Subscription music services are set to be a key driver of the boost to digital revenues, …, however, the music industry is not believed to maximising digital music revenues because of the amount of free music available online … .’ Ovum analyst Mark Little said: “Digital music will experience what might appear to be healthy growth over the next five years, but there is a danger that this could mask the fact that the industry is not maximising revenue potential.’
Crucial question – how do Ovum propose that all that free music be turned into paid music?